Business Advice Network for Flu
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A Letter from Bruce Mann CB
Swine Flu-specific planning assumptions to guide business continuity planning.
At the meeting of the Business Advisory Network for Flu on 30th June, I set out the emerging conclusions from scientific analysis on the nature of the virus, its likely rate of spread and its potential impact. Those conclusions have now been firmed up. This letter, therefore, sets out the two key assumptions for planning:
• Scenarios for the spread of the disease.
• Likely levels of absence from work.
These planning assumptions relate to the first wave of the swine flu epidemic. Further UK and international surveillance data will become available over the coming weeks and will help scientists to further develop these planning assumptions and extend them beyond the first wave.
Spread
Experience has already shown us that the disease will not spread uniformly across the UK. Although there have been ‘hotspots’ in, for example, Glasgow, London and the West Midlands, other parts of England have had much lower numbers of cases, as have Wales and Northern Ireland. As I noted on 30th June, business continuity planning will need to take into account the differential rate of spread of the disease. That might, of course, provide some advantage to companies with footprints across different parts of the UK and with the flexibility to move work around.
There are two other major factors affecting predictions on the rate of spread:
• First, scientists cannot say with certainty what will be the impact of the impending closure of schools in England on the rate of spread. Modelling suggests that we might expect to see spread slow down; and there is some practical experience of this happening in past seasonal flu epidemics. But it is very difficult to quantify.
• Second, different localities will experience different rates of build-up and tail-off of the disease depending on their characteristics (for example, whether predominantly urban or rural) and on the degree to which the virus has already spread within those localities.
So the graph illustrates three possible profiles for the course of the epidemic that reflect this differential spread. Each has a total clinical attack rate of 30% (represented by the area under each curve) – that is, on average 30% of the public will be infected and display symptoms. The pink line represents a generalised average profile for the whole of the UK. That might be followed in some localities. Others may experience a sharper rise and tail-off – the blue line. Others still may experience a slower rise and tail-off – the red line.
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For similar reasons, ‘Week 1’ of the local epidemic curve will vary from locality to locality. Clearly, some localities are already ahead of others. But, again as a generalised average, business continuity planners can reasonably base their planning on ‘Week 1’ being the first week in August.
In sum, therefore, businesses may expect to see the peak of the first wave of the pandemic broadly in the period late August to late September, but with peaks occurring at different times in different parts of the UK.
Absence from work
I noted on 30th June that there was a risk that businesses would see absences from work arising from swine flu occurring at the same time as absences during the holiday season. For that reason, and to help businesses plan, the modellers have provided two estimates for absence from work:
Absences rates for illness may reach 12% of the workforce in the peak weeks of the current wave and up to 9% by the end of August.
These figures cover the proportion of the workforce who may be absent from work at the peak of the local epidemic because they are ill themselves or because they are looking after ill children. It also assumes an average absence of 7 working days for those without complications, 10 working days for those with complications and some allowance for those at home caring for ill children. This estimate is for absence over and above normal holidays and non-pandemic illness. It does not include any additional absence due to fear of pandemic illness or the need to look after ill dependent relatives or friends other than children.
I hope that the material above is helpful to enable organisations to plan for the impacts of the epidemic. I should repeat in conclusion that our collective understanding of the virus and of its impact will continue to improve as we get more cases in the UK and as we track its progress in the southern hemisphere. These are therefore very much a first set of planning assumptions. I would expect there to be others in the months ahead, especially looking further ahead into the second wave.
Tags: BANF. Swine, Pig, Flu, Swine Flu, Advice, Cabinet...
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